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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 43 games
58%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 27 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 26 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 24 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
tOfu · 24 games
42%

BETBOOM TEAM

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 42 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 37 games
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kataomi · 29 games
62%
Muerta
Muerta
Save- · 25 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kataomi · 23 games
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 23 games
78%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kiritych · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
581 picks · 917 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 419 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 509 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
425 picks · 283 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1039 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 573 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 662 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 559 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total75% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:35
Team Liquid 66%BETBOOM TEAM 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
52% · 370 games47% · 195 games
UrsaKiritych
Ursa
Kez
KezmiCKe
51% · 124 games45% · 150 games
SlardargpK~
Slardar
Largo
LargoAce
57% · 90 games53% · 322 games
MarsMieRo
Mars
Dazzle
DazzletOfu
55% · 176 games44% · 158 games
PhoenixKataomi
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
53% · 279 games42% · 214 games
Dark WillowSave-
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct24:20
Team Liquid 66%BETBOOM TEAM 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertamiCKe
53% · 266 games47% · 313 games
BristlebackKiritych
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
53% · 481 game47% · 441 game
PuckgpK~
Puck
Tiny
TinyNisha
48% · 606 games49% · 209 games
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Warlock
WarlocktOfu
52% · 541 game52% · 398 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Marci
MarciBoxi
50% · 231 game49% · 764 games
JakiroKataomi
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct32:7
Team Liquid 66%BETBOOM TEAM 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
47% · 248 games39% · 17 games
NecrophosgpK~
Necrophos
Largo
LargoAce
49% · 88 games50% · 293 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
57% · 369 games56% · 105 games
RazorKiritych
Razor
Marci
MarciBoxi
52% · 230 games46% · 197 games
Dark WillowSave-
Dark Willow
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LighttOfu
53% · 114 games44% · 437 games
TuskKataomi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 75%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3