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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 26 games
69%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 26 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
61%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 23 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
518 picks · 807 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 627 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
491 picks · 498 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
466 picks · 566 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
433 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
431 picks · 1015 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 780 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
393 picks · 211 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:10
Team Liquid 51%BOOM Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
40% · 17 games43% · 134 games
WeaverJaCkky
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
46% · 135 games57% · 42 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
57% · 96 games52% · 67 games
EarthshakerMac
Earthshaker
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
52% · 45 games48% · 121 game
JakiroTims
Jakiro
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
52% · 100 games48% · 29 games
AbaddonJaunuel
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct21:40
Team Liquid 47%BOOM Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 52:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
57% · 196 games54% · 391 game
TinyMac
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
49% · 484 games49% · 130 games
MarciJaCkky
Marci
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
54% · 117 games44% · 263 games
DoomFbz
Doom
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
42% · 179 games54% · 213 games
LionTims
Lion
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
54% · 148 games44% · 127 games
TechiesJaunuel
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2