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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 36 games
72%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 28 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 21 game
43%
Silencer
Silencersignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
62%

BOOM Esports

Batrider
Batrider
Tims · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 21 game
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 20 games
55%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Jaunuel · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
500 picks · 494 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 573 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
390 picks · 188 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
304 picks · 556 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
276 picks · 388 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
270 picks · 158 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
265 picks · 514 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 474 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:31
Team Liquid 65%BOOM Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:00:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenV-Tune
55% · 103 games44% · 240 games
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Medusa
MedusaSabeRLight-
41% · 115 games47% · 135 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyNisha
48% · 379 games54% · 216 games
Sand KingArmel
Sand King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
53% · 98 games49% · 108 games
Shadow ShamanTims
Shadow Shaman
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
61% · 123 games46% · 119 games
SilencerJaunuel
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct40:21
Team Liquid 66%BOOM Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 50:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinV-Tune
61% · 149 games44% · 271 game
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
52% · 217 games38% · 137 games
KunkkaArmel
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
53% · 228 games49% · 93 games
TinkerJaunuel
Tinker
Ringmaster
RingmasteriNSaNiA
50% · 222 games53% · 153 games
MagnusJabz
Magnus
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
52% · 95 games49% · 257 games
WindrangerTims
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2