?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chicken Fightersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
45%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 14 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 13 games
31%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Taiga · 12 games
33%

Chicken Fighters

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
483 picks · 196 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
380 picks · 209 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 599 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
360 picks · 879 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
333 picks · 310 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 453 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
301 picks · 583 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:46
Team Liquid 37%Chicken Fighters 63%
The model gave 63% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:43:54.
Game 2prediction correct5:20
Team Liquid 37%Chicken Fighters 63%
The model gave 63% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 23:52.
Game 3prediction missed23:20
Team Liquid 37%Chicken Fighters 63%
The model gave 63% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3