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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chimera Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 27 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 27 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
61%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
57%

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 21 game
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 16 games
88%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 13 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugna
Panto · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
OneJey · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 633 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
505 picks · 803 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
486 picks · 489 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 559 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 368 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
425 picks · 1022 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 767 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
390 picks · 210 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
Team Liquid 58%Chimera Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 45:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNisha
50% · 134 games50% · 241 game
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritmiCKe
47% · 217 games57% · 40 games
HuskarLorenof
Huskar
Mirana
MiranaiNSaNiA
58% · 97 games55% · 148 games
BristlebackDaxak
Bristleback
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
51% · 194 games36% · 124 games
JakiroOneJey
Jakiro
Marci
MarciBoxi
52% · 136 games48% · 225 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed10:35
Team Liquid 61%Chimera Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 28:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
38% · 50 games53% · 75 games
LifestealerTA2000
Lifestealer
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
55% · 148 games52% · 184 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
54% · 174 games44% · 31 game
VenomancerOneJey
Venomancer
Marci
MarciBoxi
47% · 77 games50% · 49 games
Night StalkerDaxak
Night Stalker
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
46% · 60 games52% · 170 games
Crystal MaidenPanto
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultChimera Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2