The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 30 games
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 22 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 17 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 16 games
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 15 games
Lone Druidsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
517 picks · 379 bans
Marci
473 picks · 694 bans
Undying
314 picks · 525 bans
Death Prophet
300 picks · 468 bans
Puck
283 picks · 652 bans
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 375 bans
Enigma
267 picks · 855 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:6
Team Liquid 53%Entity 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:46.
Game 2prediction missed21:37
Team Liquid 53%Entity 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Entity in 43:03.
Game 3prediction correct43:30
Team Liquid 53%Entity 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 51:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3