Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 25 games
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
473 picks · 323 bans
Doom
459 picks · 987 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 846 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
Batrider
390 picks · 933 bans
Beastmaster
378 picks · 1003 bans
Pugna
378 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 26%
Hero pool strength61% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:28
Team Liquid 67%Entity 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Entity in 33:03.
Game 2prediction correct27:24
Team Liquid 67%Entity 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Accuracy by game1 of 2