ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 17 games
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 14 games
Lycansignature
zai · 14 games
Pugnaoften banned
Boxi · 14 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 13 games
Techiesoften banned
Boxi · 13 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 12 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
234 picks · 276 bans
Dark Willow
231 picks · 108 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
199 picks · 416 bans
Treant Protector
199 picks · 425 bans
Phoenix
195 picks · 262 bans
Earth Spirit
177 picks · 276 bans
Earthshaker
175 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total80% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Liquid 80%Entity 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid.
Game 2prediction correct28:9
Team Liquid 80%Entity 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:48.
Game 3prediction correct43:25
Team Liquid 80%Entity 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 58:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 80%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3