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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 27 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Io
Iosignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
79%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 19 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 18 games
61%

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 25 games
32%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 24 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Matthew · 24 games
42%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Matthew · 23 games
52%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Matthew · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 19 games
42%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Chris Luck · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 441 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
209 picks · 269 bans
51%
Sven
Sven
187 picks · 260 bans
55%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
176 picks · 106 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 372 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
172 picks · 322 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 22%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total84% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Team Liquid 69%Evil Geniuses 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
47% · 185 games50% · 73 games
Phantom AssassinPakazs
Phantom Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNisha
44% · 104 games50% · 267 games
PangolierChris Luck
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal Beastzai
52% · 205 games43% · 32 games
AxeWisper
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
49% · 119 games60% · 148 games
Treant ProtectorMatthew
Treant Protector
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
51% · 28 games52% · 121 game
Vengeful SpiritPanda
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct40:21
Team Liquid 70%Evil Geniuses 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightmiCKe
54% · 64 games52% · 85 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Windranger
WindrangerNisha
59% · 75 games37% · 49 games
Queen of PainChris Luck
Queen of Pain
Bristleback
Bristlebackzai
42% · 14 games45% · 84 games
PhoenixWisper
Phoenix
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBoxi
60% · 174 games45% · 153 games
DoomMatthew
Doom
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
50% · 91 game44% · 47 games
GrimstrokePanda
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 84%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2