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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 20 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 18 games
39%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 26 games
65%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
77%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
600 picks · 297 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
521 picks · 525 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1077 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
353 picks · 184 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 587 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
345 picks · 391 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
345 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 257 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 61%
Hero pool strength57% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:32
Team Liquid 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 53:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautmiCKe
54% · 37 games46% · 241 game
Queen of PainBob
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
TimbersawAce
51% · 150 games55% · 224 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
54% · 301 game43% · 195 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
51% · 239 games47% · 87 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptortOfu
49% · 242 games51% · 222 games
Pugnacml
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 83%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1