ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Fnaticloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Marsoften banned
zai · 14 games
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 11 games
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 9 games
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 628 bans
Bane
450 picks · 286 bans
Tiny
431 picks · 486 bans
Sand King
395 picks · 525 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 783 bans
Ember Spirit
348 picks · 545 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 530 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:22
Team Liquid 50%Fnatic 50%
The model gave 50% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 32:58.
Game 2prediction missed32:9
Team Liquid 50%Fnatic 50%
The model gave 50% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 47:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2