Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа. Финал · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:3series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Boxi · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
Boxi · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
miCKe · 6 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 6 games
Razoroften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
Weaversignature
Boxi · 6 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 14 games
Banesignature
tOfu · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 11 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 10 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
BOOM · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
539 picks · 381 bans
Mars
452 picks · 651 bans
Queen of Pain
436 picks · 525 bans
Weaver
425 picks · 843 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
335 picks · 534 bans
Spirit Breaker
333 picks · 527 bans
Wraith King
273 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:38
Team Liquid 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainmiCKe
Templar Assassindyrachyo
RazorMATUMBAMAN
Ember SpiritBOOM
Slardarzai
Spirit BreakerAce
WeaverBoxi
GrimstroketOfu
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
BaneSeleri
Game 2prediction missed23:11
Team Liquid 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMATUMBAMAN
Lunadyrachyo
Queen of PainmiCKe
TimbersawAce
Beastmasterzai
InvokerBOOM
MiranaBoxi
Treant ProtectorSeleri
JakiroiNSaNiA
BanetOfu
Game 3prediction correct19:32
Team Liquid 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMATUMBAMAN
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
Marszai
Storm SpiritBOOM
LeshracmiCKe
TidehunterAce
WeaverBoxi
RubicktOfu
DisruptoriNSaNiA
IoSeleri
Game 4prediction correct15:34
Team Liquid 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMATUMBAMAN
Storm SpiritBOOM
Ember SpiritmiCKe
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
Centaur Warrunnerzai
LycanAce
GrimstrokeBoxi
DisruptortOfu
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
IoSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4