Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Miranasignature
Boxi · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 9 games
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 7 games
Queen of Painsignature
miCKe · 7 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
Banesignature
tOfu · 17 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 17 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
Marssignature
Ace · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
460 picks · 261 bans
Mars
402 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
342 picks · 395 bans
Death Prophet
329 picks · 665 bans
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 427 bans
Weaver
292 picks · 346 bans
Sand King
289 picks · 362 bans
Templar Assassin
262 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:9
Team Liquid 46%Gaimin Gladiators 54%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingMATUMBAMAN
UnderlordAce
Death ProphetmiCKe
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Pangolierzai
MarsBOOM
MiranaBoxi
WeavertOfu
RubickiNSaNiA
GrimstrokeSeleri
Game 2prediction correct14:41
Team Liquid 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMATUMBAMAN
Razordyrachyo
Dragon KnightmiCKe
MarsAce
Necrophoszai
Storm SpiritBOOM
HoodwinkBoxi
Shadow DemontOfu
LichiNSaNiA
EnchantressSeleri
Game 3prediction correct29:46
Team Liquid 43%Gaimin Gladiators 57%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritmiCKe
Bristlebackdyrachyo
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
MarsBOOM
Venomancerzai
TimbersawAce
Dark WillowBoxi
EnchantressSeleri
LichiNSaNiA
BanetOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3