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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
Boxi · 21 game
43%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 20 games
80%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
miCKe · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 14 games
79%

Gaimin Gladiators

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 14 games
57%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
tOfu · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
tOfu · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 359 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 332 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
294 picks · 215 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
270 picks · 271 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
195 picks · 143 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
190 picks · 106 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
182 picks · 502 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
182 picks · 243 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:6
Team Liquid 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
50% · 96 games51% · 88 games
Naga Sirendyrachyo
Naga Siren
Invoker
InvokerNisha
58% · 61 game53% · 113 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Broodmother
Broodmotherzai
46% · 93 games47% · 37 games
MagnusAce
Magnus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
50% · 109 games49% · 174 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
49% · 104 games46% · 51 game
Legion CommanderSeleri
Legion Commander
Game 2prediction missed19:40
Team Liquid 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
42% · 43 games56% · 22 games
HuskarQuinn
Huskar
Broodmother
Broodmotherzai
57% · 58 games46% · 51 game
Pudgedyrachyo
Pudge
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
47% · 216 games53% · 133 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
51% · 138 games51% · 147 games
RubickSeleri
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
48% · 42 games51% · 144 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct39:9
Team Liquid 63%Gaimin Gladiators 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetmiCKe
52% · 174 games55% · 91 game
Pudgedyrachyo
Pudge
Broodmother
Broodmotherzai
54% · 65 games46% · 62 games
SniperQuinn
Sniper
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
42% · 86 games46% · 105 games
JakiroAce
Jakiro
Rubick
RubickBoxi
53% · 181 game44% · 202 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
55% · 100 games52% · 146 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3