Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Lunasignature
miCKe · 25 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
Rubick
Boxi · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
33 · 16 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 15 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 15 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 23 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 21 game
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
Muertasignature
tOfu · 15 games
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 14 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
482 picks · 746 bans
Batrider
466 picks · 918 bans
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 201 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 610 bans
Rubick
433 picks · 194 bans
Techies
433 picks · 332 bans
Mars
428 picks · 686 bans
Pangolier
424 picks · 723 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 37%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 7
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
Team Liquid 54%Gaimin Gladiators 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Medusadyrachyo
LeshracNisha
RazorQuinn
Enigma33
Centaur WarrunnerAce
RubickiNSaNiA
TechiestOfu
TinyBoxi
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Team Liquid 55%Gaimin Gladiators 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightNisha
Marcidyrachyo
Monkey KingmiCKe
SniperQuinn
Kunkka33
BeastmasterAce
OracleiNSaNiA
RubicktOfu
Dark WillowBoxi
IoSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2