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The International 2024 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 3:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 32 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
59%
Luna
Luna
miCKe · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 26 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 26 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%

Gaimin Gladiators

Sniper
Sniper
Quinn · 25 games
56%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 23 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 20 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 19 games
68%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 18 games
72%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 17 games
41%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 16 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
396 picks · 365 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
378 picks · 412 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 538 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
303 picks · 529 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
297 picks · 659 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
296 picks · 309 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
293 picks · 617 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head6 – 5
Model total53% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:15
Team Liquid 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
43% · 66 games45% · 77 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Visage
Visage33
46% · 34 games41% · 12 games
RikiQuinn
Riki
Puck
PuckNisha
48% · 115 games62% · 50 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
56% · 147 games55% · 80 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Tusk
TuskBoxi
39% · 103 games55% · 246 games
BatridertOfu
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed22:12
Team Liquid 49%Gaimin Gladiators 51%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback33
51% · 66 games46% · 259 games
Dragon Knightdyrachyo
Dragon Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
55% · 161 game47% · 352 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyNisha
50% · 429 games51% · 226 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
50% · 315 games59% · 121 game
Naga SirentOfu
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskBoxi
44% · 221 game47% · 234 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed34:17
Team Liquid 49%Gaimin Gladiators 51%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
49% · 100 games50% · 140 games
Windrangerdyrachyo
Windranger
Puck
PuckNisha
51% · 187 games57% · 50 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Visage
Visage33
47% · 45 games50% · 269 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
46% · 123 games49% · 109 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
49% · 186 games55% · 73 games
MarciSeleri
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3