DreamLeague Season 25 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Muerta
Boxi · 27 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 35 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 17 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 17 games
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
515 picks · 808 bans
Tiny
513 picks · 628 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 495 bans
Batrider
463 picks · 566 bans
Muerta
436 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
429 picks · 1020 bans
Gyrocopter
410 picks · 773 bans
Lich
391 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head10 – 3
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
Team Liquid 56%Gaimin Gladiators 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazormiCKe
GyrocopterWatson
TinyNisha
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
PangolierQuinn
PugnaiNSaNiA
MuertatOfu
Dark WillowBoxi
JakiroMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1