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BLAST Slam VI · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 33 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 20 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 18 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 17 games
59%

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 17 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Speeed · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 12 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 10 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 10 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 939 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 432 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 633 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
457 picks · 608 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 954 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
400 picks · 243 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 666 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 532 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
Team Liquid 70%GamerLegion 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderAce
53% · 359 games44% · 313 games
WindrangerYamSun
Windranger
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
57% · 329 games43% · 392 games
Queen of PainRCY
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
54% · 443 games55% · 53 games
LargoFayde
Largo
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
51% · 670 games48% · 507 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoxi
56% · 23 games45% · 559 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct23:19
Team Liquid 70%GamerLegion 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
58% · 206 games54% · 133 games
UrsaYamSun
Ursa
Lina
LinaNisha
49% · 59 games46% · 58 games
HuskarRCY
Huskar
Kunkka
KunkkaAce
44% · 112 games51% · 171 game
Queen of PainFayde
Queen of Pain
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
46% · 221 game45% · 221 game
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyverntOfu
53% · 11 games64% · 26 games
Treant ProtectorBignum
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2