?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GamerLegionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 45 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 29 games
72%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 28 games
68%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 28 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%

GamerLegion

Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 22 games
55%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 22 games
68%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 21 game
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
633 picks · 628 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 420 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 407 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 448 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
424 picks · 275 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
403 picks · 188 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1060 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 852 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total79% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:26
Team Liquid 67%GamerLegion 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackAce
53% · 179 games53% · 81 game
ViperGhost
Viper
Lone Druid
Lone DruidmiCKe
75% · 4 games48% · 279 games
Queen of PainRCY
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
52% · 324 games45% · 214 games
TidehunterFayde
Tidehunter
Death Prophet
Death ProphettOfu
48% · 16 games53% · 55 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Tusk
TuskEkki
49% · 404 games47% · 298 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed18:39
Team Liquid 66%GamerLegion 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
49% · 135 games52% · 198 games
MuertaGhost
Muerta
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
53% · 532 games45% · 303 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierAce
51% · 443 games47% · 393 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickEkki
54% · 182 games51% · 208 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
Marci
MarcitOfu
48% · 291 game49% · 481 game
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct33:21
Team Liquid 67%GamerLegion 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 47:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
56% · 287 games40% · 214 games
Queen of PainRCY
Queen of Pain
Tiny
TinymiCKe
47% · 286 games45% · 189 games
MuertaGhost
Muerta
Underlord
UnderlordAce
51% · 155 games44% · 37 games
Night StalkerFayde
Night Stalker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEkki
58% · 81 game47% · 303 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstroketOfu
63% · 55 games49% · 121 game
ClockwerkSpeeed
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 79%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3