?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Goonsquadwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 17 games
41%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 14 games
43%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Razor
Razoroften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
30%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 9 games
67%
Undying
Undying
iNSaNiA · 9 games
56%

Goonsquad

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
474 picks · 657 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
469 picks · 441 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 275 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 564 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
408 picks · 489 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 571 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
344 picks · 295 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 82%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Team Liquid 51%Goonsquad 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:33.
Game 2prediction missed38:34
Team Liquid 51%Goonsquad 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 1:14:55.
Game 3prediction missed13:21
Team Liquid 51%Goonsquad 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Goonsquad in 35:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 51%
Series resultGoonsquad 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3