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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 30 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 25 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
65%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Nisha · 17 games
71%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 33 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 20 games
65%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
41%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
KJ · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 204 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 595 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 813 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
442 picks · 649 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
425 picks · 175 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 735 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 615 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
377 picks · 288 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:13
Team Liquid 64%Heroic 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
51% · 199 games51% · 121 game
LifestealerK1
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckNisha
48% · 174 games56% · 100 games
Leshrac4nalog
Leshrac
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
44% · 177 games48% · 286 games
PangolierDavai
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
48% · 131 game51% · 102 games
Nature's ProphetKJ
Nature's Prophet
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
53% · 72 games52% · 144 games
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed20:36
Team Liquid 65%Heroic 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Heroic in 54:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
48% · 193 games56% · 107 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
49% · 149 games43% · 316 games
Pangolier4nalog
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
41% · 133 games55% · 151 game
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Chen
CheniNSaNiA
51% · 121 game46% · 253 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesBoxi
45% · 299 games69% · 68 games
EarthshakerScofield
Earthshaker
Game 3prediction correct36:15
Team Liquid 65%Heroic 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
47% · 114 games53% · 138 games
LifestealerK1
Lifestealer
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
44% · 185 games62% · 106 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Puck
PuckNisha
50% · 171 game49% · 214 games
Void Spirit4nalog
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
54% · 240 games49% · 161 game
TuskScofield
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
49% · 142 games44% · 233 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 77%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3