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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Heroicwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 20 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
612 picks · 301 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
532 picks · 535 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 1100 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
366 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
355 picks · 597 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 157 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 262 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:24
Team Liquid 54%Heroic 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
50% · 311 games43% · 40 games
JuggernautYuma
Juggernaut
Bristleback
BristlebackNisha
56% · 298 games50% · 468 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarAce
51% · 107 games51% · 198 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireBoxi
53% · 210 games53% · 143 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerktOfu
40% · 195 games50% · 272 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 61%
Series resultHeroic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1