PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 46 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 30 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 29 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 26 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
Heroic
Jakirooften banned
Thiolicor · 37 games
Tusk
Scofield · 31 game
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 23 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 21 game
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
661 picks · 752 bans
Tiny
537 picks · 507 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 410 bans
Warlock
451 picks · 308 bans
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1107 bans
Phoenix
396 picks · 325 bans
Puck
392 picks · 799 bans
Mars
388 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total73% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:26
Team Liquid 62%Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNisha
ViperTaiLung
PangolierAce
BristlebackWisper
WindrangermiCKe
Faceless VoidYuma
HoodwinkEkki
PhoenixKJ
MarcitOfu
TuskThiolicor
Game 2prediction correct30:23
Team Liquid 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidmiCKe
LunaYuma
SniperNisha
HuskarTaiLung
PangolierAce
MagnusWisper
VenomancertOfu
PhoenixKJ
HoodwinkEkki
TuskThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 73%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2