PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 45 games
Tinysignature
Boxi · 30 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 28 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Heroic
Jakiro
Thiolicor · 35 games
Tusk
Scofield · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 23 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
614 picks · 572 bans
Tiny
518 picks · 413 bans
Tusk
468 picks · 406 bans
Phoenix
454 picks · 520 bans
Hoodwink
449 picks · 225 bans
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1033 bans
Puck
386 picks · 897 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:8
Team Liquid 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNisha
TinyYuma
KezmiCKe
ViperTaiLung
SlardarAce
EnigmaWisper
TechiestOfu
PhoenixKJ
IoEkki
TuskThiolicor
Game 2prediction correct48:18
Team Liquid 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinymiCKe
AlchemistYuma
BatriderAce
UndyingWisper
Ember SpiritNisha
BristlebackTaiLung
PhoenixtOfu
VenomancerKJ
RubickEkki
LionThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2