The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 30 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 17 games
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Boxi · 15 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
530 picks · 398 bans
Marci
470 picks · 716 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 474 bans
Undying
301 picks · 510 bans
Puck
293 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 396 bans
Enigma
266 picks · 851 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 361 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Team Liquid 71%Hokori 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:25.
Game 2prediction correct44:14
Team Liquid 71%Hokori 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2