?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 16 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
36%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 10 games
70%

LGD Gaming

Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
85%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 12 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 11 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
675 picks · 483 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
471 picks · 973 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
387 picks · 489 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 191 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
351 picks · 670 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 552 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
304 picks · 421 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
302 picks · 624 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:29
Team Liquid 30%LGD Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzai
45% · 194 games51% · 151 game
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
52% · 20 games54% · 240 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
47% · 317 games55% · 124 games
TidehunterFaith_bian
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
49% · 269 games53% · 127 games
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Dazzle
DazzleiNSaNiA
51% · 69 games46% · 227 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct20:26
Team Liquid 30%LGD Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMATUMBAMAN
45% · 68 games46% · 69 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Tiny
TinymiCKe
51% · 227 games48% · 159 games
RazorFaith_bian
Razor
Magnus
Magnuszai
62% · 33 games52% · 75 games
NecrophosNothingToSay
Necrophos
Marci
MarciBoxi
50% · 59 games47% · 61 game
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
45% · 16 games56% · 39 games
Cheny`
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 82%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2