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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 31 game
81%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 18 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
79%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 13 games
77%

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 16 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 13 games
85%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 12 games
92%
Tusk
Tusk
pLAnet · 11 games
55%
Ursa
Ursasignature
shiro · 11 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 707 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 462 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 428 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 905 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 395 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1204 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
500 picks · 1096 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:27
Team Liquid 54%LGD Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
54% · 98 games47% · 85 games
Medusashiro
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingNisha
51% · 168 games57% · 108 games
AlchemistNothingToSay
Alchemist
Underlord
Underlordzai
51% · 70 games54% · 379 games
Beastmasterzeal
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickBoxi
48% · 347 games44% · 252 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
47% · 193 games45% · 52 games
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct29:13
Team Liquid 52%LGD Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
57% · 227 games51% · 149 games
Faceless Voidshiro
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
49% · 86 games55% · 104 games
AlchemistNothingToSay
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
48% · 94 games47% · 67 games
Brewmasterzeal
Brewmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
48% · 366 games50% · 432 games
RubickpLAnet
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
47% · 232 games48% · 253 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2