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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 25 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 22 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 18 games
39%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 18 games
72%
Windranger
Windranger
Boxi · 18 games
56%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 23 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 14 games
79%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
93%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
493 picks · 256 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
470 picks · 463 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 967 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
326 picks · 373 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
300 picks · 147 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
293 picks · 487 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
293 picks · 496 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 620 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:12
Team Liquid 71%MOUZ 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
55% · 168 games52% · 250 games
BristlebackCrystallis
Bristleback
Lycan
LycanAce
51% · 135 games47% · 158 games
Queen of PainMidOne
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
54% · 131 game42% · 207 games
DawnbreakerBOOM
Dawnbreaker
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 327 games55% · 31 game
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Weaver
WeavertOfu
48% · 59 games51% · 174 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed8:21
Team Liquid 70%MOUZ 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by MOUZ in 24:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoommiCKe
49% · 221 game63% · 53 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
47% · 290 games53% · 434 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
48% · 348 games48% · 179 games
Shadow FiendMidOne
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
42% · 123 games52% · 426 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
51% · 193 games48% · 83 games
DazzleSeleri
Dazzle
Game 3prediction correct45:44
Team Liquid 70%MOUZ 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 51:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
48% · 347 games58% · 187 games
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Nature's Prophet
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
49% · 257 games53% · 51 game
HuskarCrystallis
Huskar
Timbersaw
TimbersawAce
51% · 162 games54% · 110 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Pudge
PudgetOfu
55% · 32 games48% · 127 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickBoxi
41% · 83 games48% · 406 games
Tinyyamich
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 85%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3