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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 25 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
58%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 18 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 18 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 15 games
60%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 65 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 49 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 46 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 40 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 39 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Crystallis · 32 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
546 picks · 817 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
505 picks · 367 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
467 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
453 picks · 574 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 734 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 575 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 470 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 533 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total56% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:19
Team Liquid 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertamiCKe
48% · 183 games61% · 38 games
BroodmotherCrystallis
Broodmother
Puck
PuckNisha
44% · 255 games45% · 53 games
ViperMidOne
Viper
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
41% · 58 games51% · 153 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
58% · 217 games45% · 292 games
Tinyyamich
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
62% · 25 games56% · 202 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct8:27
Team Liquid 45%MOUZ 55%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNisha
49% · 80 games55% · 172 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
57% · 274 games51% · 46 games
ViperMidOne
Viper
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
50% · 71 game38% · 55 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Weaver
WeavertOfu
46% · 105 games54% · 100 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
48% · 92 games48% · 249 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct16:31
Team Liquid 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 48:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
51% · 33 games45% · 205 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
54% · 352 games53% · 25 games
RazorMidOne
Razor
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
42% · 139 games51% · 56 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Mirana
MiranatOfu
52% · 47 games53% · 105 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
61% · 97 games44% · 277 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 56%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3