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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 7 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 5 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Taiga · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
miCKe · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 3 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
KuroKy · 5 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
KuroKy · 4 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
GH · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
w33 · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 947 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
376 picks · 574 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 611 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 264 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
295 picks · 585 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
240 picks · 328 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:15
Team Liquid 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBoxi
56% · 47 games45% · 66 games
Ember SpiritMiracle-
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckmiCKe
45% · 175 games54% · 91 game
Monkey Kingw33
Monkey King
Venomancer
Venomancerqojqva
48% · 19 games57% · 66 games
Dragon KnightrmN-
Dragon Knight
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
42% · 49 games51% · 108 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTaiga
52% · 103 games52% · 62 games
LionKuroKy
Lion
Game 2prediction missed43:16
Team Liquid 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckmiCKe
40% · 144 games57% · 52 games
Dragon KnightMiracle-
Dragon Knight
Lone Druid
Lone Druidqojqva
little data60% · 6 games
Razorw33
Razor
Timbersaw
TimbersawBoxi
48% · 46 games54% · 57 games
GrimstrokermN-
Grimstroke
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
40% · 48 games55% · 79 games
Keeper of the LightKuroKy
Keeper of the Light
Tiny
TinyTaiga
54% · 18 games59% · 62 games
Nyx AssassinGH
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 52%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2