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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 21 game
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 20 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 16 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 14 games
50%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Boxi · 13 games
62%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 18 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 17 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 17 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 16 games
44%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 15 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 12 games
83%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
486 picks · 197 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
384 picks · 209 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 600 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 882 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
334 picks · 310 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
327 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 457 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
305 picks · 587 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:10
Team Liquid 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunamiCKe
47% · 72 games49% · 43 games
Phantom AssassiniLTW
Phantom Assassin
Lone Druid
Lone Druidqojqva
43% · 3 games47% · 96 games
LinaMiracle-
Lina
Axe
AxeBoxi
47% · 110 games47% · 102 games
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Timbersaw
Viper
ViperiNSaNiA
55% · 91 game48% · 129 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Mirana
MiranaTaiga
55% · 149 games53% · 55 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct8:41
Team Liquid 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherqojqva
55% · 35 games59% · 49 games
LunaiLTW
Luna
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightmiCKe
55% · 14 games46% · 80 games
Storm SpiritMiracle-
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierBoxi
50% · 153 games44% · 182 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Lina
LinaTaiga
45% · 92 games47% · 53 games
HoodwinkKuroKy
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixiNSaNiA
54% · 176 games53% · 106 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct21:23
Team Liquid 45%Nigma Galaxy 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
45% · 69 games53% · 55 games
Templar AssassinMiracle-
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawBoxi
55% · 147 games44% · 56 games
LunaiLTW
Luna
Razor
Razorqojqva
59% · 59 games53% · 166 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Enigma
EnigmaTaiga
40% · 44 games48% · 64 games
IoGH
Io
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
50% · 56 games43% · 34 games
HoodwinkKuroKy
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 61%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3