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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 21 game
76%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
70%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
GH · 18 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 17 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 16 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
GH · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
365 picks · 335 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 490 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 463 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 601 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
291 picks · 347 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
285 picks · 154 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 424 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
250 picks · 241 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Team Liquid 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
47% · 301 game46% · 86 games
MedusaMiracle-
Medusa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
49% · 249 games54% · 270 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
43% · 181 game56% · 189 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
55% · 26 games53% · 239 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
48% · 109 games53% · 82 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct34:21
Team Liquid 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
42% · 124 games52% · 120 games
Shadow FiendMiracle-
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokerNisha
51% · 170 games52% · 101 game
Sand KingNo!ob
Sand King
Marci
MarciBoxi
43% · 127 games53% · 120 games
Monkey KingSumaiL
Monkey King
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
56% · 114 games49% · 191 game
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
48% · 258 games53% · 261 game
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 80%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2