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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 25 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Kez
Kez
miCKe · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 16 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 16 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 15 games
60%

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
561 picks · 693 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 342 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 663 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 535 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
403 picks · 191 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 519 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 512 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head7 – 0
Model total72% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:2
Team Liquid 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
VipermiCKe
53% · 50 games48% · 274 games
Dragon Knightrincyq
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaAce
49% · 80 games50% · 314 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
56% · 265 games46% · 55 games
SniperSumaiL
Sniper
Undying
UndyingtOfu
47% · 100 games45% · 19 games
IoGH
Io
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
51% · 176 games69% · 9 games
Treant ProtectorOmaR
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct33:8
Team Liquid 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
54% · 241 game53% · 37 games
Omniknightrincyq
Omniknight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
45% · 398 games52% · 455 games
Dragon KnightSumaiL
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxeAce
44% · 170 games49% · 323 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Chen
ChentOfu
55% · 201 game54% · 368 games
BatriderGH
Batrider
Tusk
TuskBoxi
47% · 470 games48% · 297 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 72%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2