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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 25 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 18 games
44%
Kez
Kez
miCKe · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 14 games
64%

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
532 picks · 783 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 344 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
461 picks · 637 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 558 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
374 picks · 698 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 566 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 463 bans
48%
Slardar
Slardar
321 picks · 894 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head8 – 0
Model total78% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:45
Team Liquid 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:22:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
64% · 30 games52% · 156 games
Shadow Fiendrincyq
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
45% · 290 games44% · 40 games
ViperSumaiL
Viper
Axe
AxeAce
42% · 202 games52% · 179 games
SlardarNo!ob
Slardar
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagitOfu
55% · 53 games54% · 153 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
RingmasterBoxi
55% · 347 games46% · 394 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct37:5
Team Liquid 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
49% · 295 games54% · 230 games
Templar Assassinrincyq
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
56% · 288 games49% · 164 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaAce
41% · 134 games45% · 191 game
SlardarNo!ob
Slardar
Mirana
MiranatOfu
53% · 51 game49% · 113 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
52% · 193 games51% · 263 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 78%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2