Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 19 games
Pucksignature
miCKe · 18 games
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 13 games
Tinysignature
Taiga · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
Razorsignature
qojqva · 9 games
Slardarsignature
Boxi · 9 games
OG
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Topson · 6 games
Rikisignature
Topson · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
ana · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
394 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
374 picks · 598 bans
Lion
359 picks · 187 bans
Grimstroke
357 picks · 365 bans
Void Spirit
321 picks · 511 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 687 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
254 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:27
Team Liquid 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingSumaiL
Faceless Voidana
Ember SpiritmiCKe
TinyTopson
EnchantressTaiga
TidehunterCeb
SnapfireiNSaNiA
HoodwinkSaksa
Magnusqojqva
Grimstroken0tail
Game 2prediction correct37:11
Team Liquid 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 21:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Svenana
Broodmotherqojqva
TinyTopson
MarsmiCKe
BeastmasterCeb
SnapfireTaiga
Dark WillowSaksa
DazzleiNSaNiA
Ancient Apparitionn0tail
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2