Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
Boxi · 7 games
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 6 games
Razoroften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 5 games
Mirana
Boxi · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Boxi · 5 games
OG
Snapfire
Taiga · 13 games
Banesignature
Misha · 10 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 10 games
Clinkzsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 8 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 7 games
Shadow Demon
Misha · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
533 picks · 379 bans
Mars
457 picks · 648 bans
Queen of Pain
428 picks · 519 bans
Weaver
412 picks · 854 bans
Snapfire
352 picks · 180 bans
Kunkka
331 picks · 533 bans
Spirit Breaker
330 picks · 520 bans
Wraith King
267 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:6
Team Liquid 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMATUMBAMAN
Wraith KingYuragi
Ember SpiritmiCKe
MarsATF
Spirit Breakerzai
Puckbzm
WeaverBoxi
RazorMisha
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
SnapfireTaiga
Game 2prediction missed36:10
Team Liquid 48%OG 52%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMATUMBAMAN
MedusaYuragi
Queen of PainmiCKe
Kunkkabzm
Legion Commanderzai
MarsATF
Spirit BreakerBoxi
WeaverTaiga
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
DisruptorMisha
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2