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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 13 games
46%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 10 games
90%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 9 games
56%
Necrophos
Necrophossignature
zai · 9 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
zai · 8 games
50%

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 15 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 14 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 14 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 14 games
93%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 13 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
82%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bzm · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
578 picks · 456 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
430 picks · 659 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
400 picks · 523 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 854 bans
56%
Bane
Bane
378 picks · 261 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 629 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 161 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 548 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% OG
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total54% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:7
Team Liquid 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 21:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
48% · 262 games50% · 186 games
Keeper of the Lightbzm
Keeper of the Light
Razor
Razorzai
50% · 130 games51% · 181 game
Chaos KnightATF
Chaos Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingMATUMBAMAN
56% · 144 games48% · 68 games
Phantom LancerYuragi
Phantom Lancer
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
53% · 49 games47% · 139 games
Skywrath MageTaiga
Skywrath Mage
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
46% · 116 games52% · 127 games
Winter WyvernMisha
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed39:22
Team Liquid 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
48% · 154 games58% · 99 games
Morphlingbzm
Morphling
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
little data72% · 10 games
RikiYuragi
Riki
Razor
Razorzai
50% · 109 games47% · 140 games
Chaos KnightATF
Chaos Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBoxi
40% · 40 games55% · 60 games
WindrangerTaiga
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
44% · 32 games51% · 26 games
Crystal MaidenMisha
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 54%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2