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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 29 games
72%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
74%
Tiny
Tiny
Boxi · 19 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 16 games
75%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 15 games
73%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 15 games
80%

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
761 picks · 494 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
541 picks · 392 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
538 picks · 445 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 581 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
412 picks · 623 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 273 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
379 picks · 672 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 769 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 44%
Hero pool strength61% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total75% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Team Liquid 65%OG 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
51% · 255 games52% · 222 games
Templar Assassinbzm
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckNisha
49% · 330 games51% · 236 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzai
42% · 323 games51% · 240 games
Monkey KingYuragi
Monkey King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
46% · 292 games52% · 687 games
TinyChuvash
Tiny
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
54% · 250 games52% · 65 games
Ogre MagiTaiga
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct34:11
Team Liquid 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
48% · 165 games53% · 327 games
LinaYuragi
Lina
Death Prophet
Death Prophetzai
47% · 398 games53% · 223 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Tusk
TuskNisha
52% · 427 games47% · 168 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
47% · 291 game51% · 789 games
TinyChuvash
Tiny
Undying
UndyingiNSaNiA
53% · 280 games47% · 54 games
Ogre MagiTaiga
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 75%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2