DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 33 games
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Tiny
Boxi · 18 games
Enigmasignature
zai · 17 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 16 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 17 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 13 games
Tiny
Taiga · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 11 games
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
958 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
657 picks · 463 bans
Nature's Prophet
576 picks · 924 bans
Tusk
549 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
517 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
495 picks · 1090 bans
Clockwerk
465 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 54%
Hero pool strength64% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total79% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:24
Team Liquid 69%OG 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracNisha
Troll WarlordYuragi
BloodseekermiCKe
Invokerbzm
Razorzai
DoomDM
BaneiNSaNiA
TechiesTaiga
IoBoxi
DisruptorChuvash
Game 2prediction correct31:7
Team Liquid 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 24:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MagemiCKe
SvenYuragi
Storm SpiritNisha
Invokerbzm
Marszai
BeastmasterDM
EnchantressiNSaNiA
TechiesChuvash
IoBoxi
Monkey KingTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 79%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2