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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
68%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
70%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 19 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
47%

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 20 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 15 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
38%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 13 games
54%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 639 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
468 picks · 417 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
409 picks · 853 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
397 picks · 451 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 564 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
383 picks · 335 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
Team Liquid 67%OG 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonmiCKe
48% · 172 games60% · 219 games
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
51% · 461 game56% · 38 games
OmniknightShad
Omniknight
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
51% · 57 games47% · 348 games
PangolierStormstormer
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockTobi
48% · 243 games50% · 280 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
41% · 304 games51% · 352 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct36:28
Team Liquid 68%OG 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
48% · 283 games51% · 117 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNisha
43% · 157 games48% · 212 games
Dragon KnightShad
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
47% · 27 games51% · 211 games
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTobi
55% · 132 games57% · 148 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
50% · 184 games45% · 95 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2