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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
79%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 18 games
83%

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 11 games
82%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 10 games
90%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DM · 10 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
420 picks · 474 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 539 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
336 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 421 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 655 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
307 picks · 317 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:46
Team Liquid 58%PARIVISION 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
52% · 170 games62% · 147 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Razor
RazormiCKe
43% · 176 games50% · 108 games
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
Earth Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
46% · 78 games54% · 102 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
47% · 297 games46% · 233 games
Morphling9Class
Morphling
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
57% · 90 games44% · 221 game
GyrocopterDukalis
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct41:15
Team Liquid 58%PARIVISION 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
49% · 350 games52% · 215 games
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
55% · 89 games51% · 229 games
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
50% · 315 games49% · 251 game
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskBoxi
48% · 346 games46% · 300 games
PhoenixDukalis
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
49% · 186 games50% · 291 game
Shadow Demon9Class
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct32:14
Team Liquid 56%PARIVISION 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
47% · 118 games47% · 82 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
47% · 57 games51% · 158 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Tiny
TinyNisha
49% · 235 games53% · 116 games
EnigmaDM
Enigma
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
53% · 107 games49% · 302 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
52% · 208 games52% · 67 games
Ogre MagiDukalis
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3