BLAST Slam I · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
Razorsignature
miCKe · 23 games
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Muerta
Boxi · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 19 games
PARIVISION
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 14 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 13 games
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 12 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
506 picks · 686 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 488 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 534 bans
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
350 picks · 180 bans
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 477 bans
Enchantress
326 picks · 633 bans
Batrider
317 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:29
Team Liquid 65%PARIVISION 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazormiCKe
SniperNo[o]ne
TerrorbladeSabeRLight-
AlchemistCrystallis
InvokerNisha
BeastmasterDM
Dark WillowBoxi
Shadow DemonPanto
Ogre MagiiNSaNiA
Gyrocopter9Class
Game 2prediction missed23:47
Team Liquid 63%PARIVISION 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 49:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinmiCKe
RazorCrystallis
TinyNisha
Earth SpiritNo[o]ne
TerrorbladeSabeRLight-
Centaur WarrunnerDM
DoomBoxi
ChenPanto
PugnaiNSaNiA
Muerta9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 71%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2