?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 44 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 27 games
44%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 26 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 23 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 22 games
64%

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 19 games
84%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 18 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 15 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 15 games
40%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 15 games
40%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
635 picks · 996 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 441 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 636 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 496 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
453 picks · 1069 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
445 picks · 282 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
429 picks · 585 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
420 picks · 505 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total78% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:33
Team Liquid 67%PARIVISION 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 54:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
54% · 249 games41% · 131 game
WeaverSatanic
Weaver
Puck
PuckNisha
50% · 381 game51% · 88 games
LargoSSS
Largo
Batrider
BatriderAce
52% · 300 games51% · 487 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
63% · 82 games49% · 435 games
Shadow Shaman9Class
Shadow Shaman
Tiny
TinyBoxi
46% · 499 games45% · 370 games
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct29:25
Team Liquid 70%PARIVISION 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 51:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
54% · 511 games44% · 302 games
WindrangerSatanic
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
55% · 520 games43% · 517 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Razor
RazormiCKe
57% · 141 game45% · 462 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Warlock
WarlocktOfu
50% · 492 games46% · 408 games
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
53% · 387 games54% · 362 games
Shadow Demon9Class
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct28:13
Team Liquid 67%PARIVISION 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNisha
57% · 186 games50% · 36 games
KezSatanic
Kez
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
47% · 155 games52% · 185 games
BatriderSSS
Batrider
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
50% · 225 games45% · 63 games
SniperNo[o]ne
Sniper
Oracle
OracletOfu
51% · 47 games49% · 47 games
Slark9Class
Slark
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritBoxi
55% · 17 games45% · 299 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 78%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3