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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARIVISIONloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 43 games
58%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 24 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
tOfu · 24 games
42%

PARIVISION

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 23 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 21 game
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
85%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 16 games
44%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
No[o]ne · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
597 picks · 921 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 424 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
480 picks · 521 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
441 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1064 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 575 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 582 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 674 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total72% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:17
Team Liquid 64%PARIVISION 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 55:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
47% · 206 games49% · 252 games
MuertaSatanic
Muerta
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
56% · 251 game50% · 262 games
TidehunterNo[o]ne
Tidehunter
Largo
LargoAce
48% · 50 games50% · 265 games
BatriderSSS
Batrider
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
41% · 404 games57% · 148 games
BaneDukalis
Bane
Lion
LionBoxi
50% · 56 games56% · 40 games
Earth Spirit9Class
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct34:20
Team Liquid 62%PARIVISION 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largo
LargoAce
59% · 75 games58% · 101 game
TinkerNo[o]ne
Tinker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
45% · 181 game62% · 101 game
Faceless VoidSatanic
Faceless Void
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
42% · 219 games51% · 328 games
BatriderSSS
Batrider
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
44% · 474 games50% · 270 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Tusk
TuskBoxi
45% · 430 games50% · 579 games
Tiny9Class
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 72%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2