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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 25 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 17 games
76%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 15 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Boomy · 14 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Force · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
541 picks · 421 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
451 picks · 671 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 746 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
323 picks · 444 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
295 picks · 491 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
286 picks · 361 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 837 bans
52%
Dazzle
Dazzle
250 picks · 157 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:10
Team Liquid 57%Polaris Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
46% · 47 games29% · 3 games
SniperMac
Sniper
Pudge
PudgeMATUMBAMAN
50% · 41 game48% · 21 game
LifestealerNatsumi
Lifestealer
Venomancer
Venomancerzai
44% · 28 games49% · 139 games
Death ProphetForce
Death Prophet
Marci
MarciBoxi
51% · 153 games57% · 82 games
EarthshakerBoomy
Earthshaker
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctoriNSaNiA
45% · 15 games56% · 39 games
LichEyyou
Lich
Game 2prediction missed20:31
Team Liquid 57%Polaris Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMATUMBAMAN
48% · 52 games49% · 116 games
LinaMac
Lina
Invoker
InvokermiCKe
53% · 159 games42% · 31 game
PudgeNatsumi
Pudge
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzai
53% · 43 games52% · 235 games
MarsForce
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
53% · 135 games48% · 96 games
ClockwerkBoomy
Clockwerk
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
49% · 102 games53% · 13 games
OmniknightEyyou
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct25:19
Team Liquid 53%Polaris Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMATUMBAMAN
56% · 30 games44% · 194 games
Monkey KingNatsumi
Monkey King
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzai
59% · 103 games55% · 97 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
Pudge
PudgemiCKe
51% · 53 games44% · 170 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireiNSaNiA
47% · 222 games54% · 37 games
SvenBoomy
Sven
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
46% · 137 games53% · 47 games
SilencerEyyou
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 60%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3