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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 22 games
77%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 19 games
79%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 17 games
82%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 32 games
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 22 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 21 game
62%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
715 picks · 611 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
590 picks · 515 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
490 picks · 937 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
489 picks · 1219 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
434 picks · 1097 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
424 picks · 879 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
411 picks · 219 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
407 picks · 583 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total85% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:26
Team Liquid 70%PSG Quest 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkmiCKe
52% · 111 games54% · 93 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
49% · 258 games50% · 79 games
Queen of PainNo!ob
Queen of Pain
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinzai
45% · 65 games47% · 121 game
MarsATF
Mars
Techies
TechiesBoxi
50% · 105 games50% · 60 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyverniNSaNiA
54% · 62 games49% · 248 games
MiranaOmaR
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed28:57
Team Liquid 70%PSG Quest 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
49% · 210 games52% · 112 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Viper
Viperzai
45% · 63 games60% · 134 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
50% · 173 games51% · 203 games
BatriderNo!ob
Batrider
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBoxi
44% · 33 games50% · 80 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
42% · 90 games57% · 40 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 85%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2