DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Lunasignature
miCKe · 21 game
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
Rubick
Boxi · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
33 · 13 games
Muerta
Boxi · 13 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 11 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 10 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
390 picks · 641 bans
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
Mars
376 picks · 607 bans
Techies
370 picks · 305 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 768 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 348 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 389 bans
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 75%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Team Liquid 89%Rest Farmers 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:46.
Game 2prediction correct25:11
Team Liquid 89%Rest Farmers 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 89%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2