ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:1
SG e-sportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 16 games
Tinysignature
Taiga · 16 games
Snapfiresignature
Taiga · 15 games
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 14 games
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Taiga · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 12 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
403 picks · 189 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 136 bans
Nyx Assassin
299 picks · 597 bans
Puck
284 picks · 623 bans
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 357 bans
Winter Wyvern
271 picks · 233 bans
Mars
269 picks · 470 bans
Ancient Apparition
258 picks · 426 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:39
Team Liquid 32%SG e-sports 68%
The model gave 68% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 50:53.
Game 2prediction missed35:10
Team Liquid 32%SG e-sports 68%
The model gave 68% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2