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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 33 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 27 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 21 game
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 14 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 213 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 619 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
405 picks · 736 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
392 picks · 157 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
389 picks · 542 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
378 picks · 319 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 727 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 546 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:41
Team Liquid 65%Shopify Rebellion 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
46% · 169 games52% · 232 games
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
53% · 223 games48% · 173 games
RazorArteezy
Razor
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
52% · 103 games46% · 181 game
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
50% · 132 games49% · 174 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
57% · 133 games
Game 2prediction missed6:17
Team Liquid 66%Shopify Rebellion 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
58% · 71 game51% · 76 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Lina
LinaNisha
52% · 78 games46% · 117 games
GyrocopterArteezy
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
53% · 112 games47% · 99 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Marci
MarciBoxi
54% · 30 games44% · 93 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Enigma
EnigmaiNSaNiA
50% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 78%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2