Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Rubick
Boxi · 32 games
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 28 games
Tinysignature
Boxi · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 25 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
Shopify Rebellion
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Tinysignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
376 picks · 792 bans
Hoodwink
359 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
348 picks · 250 bans
Weaver
345 picks · 719 bans
Clockwerk
318 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
309 picks · 499 bans
Gyrocopter
307 picks · 371 bans
Phoenix
296 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
Team Liquid 60%Shopify Rebellion 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangermiCKe
Dragon KnightPakazs
TinyNisha
Templar AssassinYopaj
Brewmaster33
MarsSabeRLight-
RubickBoxi
JakiroSkem
SveniNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct22:20
Team Liquid 58%Shopify Rebellion 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingmiCKe
Chaos KnightPakazs
Ember SpiritNisha
TimbersawYopaj
Sand King33
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
TechiesBoxi
ChenSkem
SveniNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2